Fossil fuels: Is a breakthrough within reach at COP28?
DUBAI, UAE- A paradox has run through the COP28 meeting from start to finish: This is a global summit on addressing climate change, yet it is hosted in an oil nation with an oil baron in the president’s chair. But a meeting filled with contrasts and contradictions is not necessarily a fruitless one.
The precise text of the final communique is still being hammered out in last-minute bargaining. While nonbinding, it will represent a unanimously agreed-upon statement of purpose from the world’s nations, gathered in the United Arab Emirates’ capital of Dubai.
For now, climate advocates are up in arms over the draft text’s lack of the word “phaseout” in reference to fossil fuels. Yet the draft text does go further than prior summits have gone in their final statements, by mentioning fossil fuels at all.
The draft text proposed Monday by the UAE to be hammered out by parties calls for “reducing both consumption and production of fossil fuels, in a just, orderly, and equitable manner so as to achieve net zero by, before, or around 2050, in keeping with the science.”
That’s a sign of how far the goal posts have shifted in the discussion on fossil fuels.
The phaseout of all fossil fuels, once a demand by small island states and climate activists but seen as a nonstarter by many developed nations, has been accepted by many negotiating teams as an urgent, essential step, echoed by the United Nations and even the private sector.
If anything, some climate activists say the momentum has been turbocharged by global scrutiny on a climate summit held in an oil- and gas-producing country following a year of record high world temperatures and severe climate events.
The role of fossil fuel lobbyists “has rightfully created a lot of skepticism and scrutiny of the ... process,” says Caroline Brouilette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada. “On the other hand, we have never been collectively closer to seeing the phaseout of all fossil fuels included in a COP decision, which would be a historic first in 28 years.”
Since Day 1 of the conference on Nov. 30, pressure has been building on governments from delegates and publics to secure commitments on reducing fossil fuel use to avoid appearing to have “sold out” to lobbyists.
“This has resulted in more pressure, more expectations, and more leverage for a fossil fuel phaseout,” says Ms. Brouilette. With the competing pressures here, the result “may very well be a historic inflection point.”
Shifts from China to Latin America
Consensus has grown here in the past two weeks on the need for language calling for a phasing down or phasing out.
China has softened its stance and is seeking compromise with the United States.
Colombia, one of the 25 largest oil and gas producers, used the U.N.’s Conference of Parties, or COP, to declare it would stop production and threw its support behind a fossil fuels nonproliferation treaty, warning of a planet “omnicide.”
Brazil, another oil producer, voiced support for a phaseout and is attempting to bridge negotiating gaps between developing and developed countries as of Monday.
But if this meeting’s oil nation locale had helped to stoke ambition, it also laid the groundwork for opposition.
Momentum was gaining pace so quickly, the OPEC secretary-general issued a letter instructing members to “proactively reject any text or formula that targets energy, i.e. fossil fuels, rather than emissions” in the conference’s text.
Saudi Arabia’s delegation, according to a negotiator present in the room, described initial draft language on fossil fuels over the weekend as “traumatizing.”
More than 2,000 oil lobbyists
The zigs and zags come at a COP where fossil fuel producers have been omnipresent, hosting events promoted by host country UAE that have overshadowed the talks themselves. ……CONTINUE READING AT THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR