A plan for Gaza’s future is taking shape. Obstacles loom.
DUBAI, UAE; AMMAN, JORDAN; AND RAMALLAH, WEST BANK- A massive postwar reconstruction plan is taking shape for the besieged Gaza Strip, if only the combatants and local politics don’t stand in the way.
Backed by Gulf billions and spurred by public pressure, the plan is being advanced by Arab states, the United States, and the European Union. It aims to transform life for the Palestinians and move them closer to statehood, with new support from the Palestinian Authority.
Moves are accelerating after the PA agreed this week to a proposal by the U.S., the EU, Arab Gulf states, Egypt, and Jordan for a “day-after” scenario. The plan seeks to rebuild the coastal strip, unite and overhaul Palestinian governance, and create a Palestinian security force in Gaza to ensure Palestinian and Israeli security.
Ongoing talks in Gulf capitals, Amman, and Ramallah are closing in on tough questions, including who should make up the new Palestinian government, and how to rebuild a territory where practically all infrastructure is destroyed.
Yet outstanding challenges continue to stump Arab and Western diplomats from three sources: a far-right Israeli government that is rejecting a role for the PA in Gaza’s governance, a militant Hamas that is far from having been defeated or disarmed by the war that broke out Oct. 7, and internal Palestinian divisions.
Observers say how these challenges are tackled may be the difference between postwar reconstruction and peace, and a security vacuum and chaos.
A strip. A plan.
Key to the plan is what Arab diplomats describe as a “rapid” reconstruction and humanitarian campaign to alleviate the suffering of Gaza Palestinians, create housing, and restore livelihoods.
Under the plan, Gulf states have set an initial budget of $3 billion annually for a 10-year period, with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar as the three largest donors, according to a Gulf official who requested anonymity.
The priority of the rapid part of the rebuild will be southern Gaza, where 1 million internally displaced Palestinians have been pushed by the Israeli military. The effort there will be to build housing, schools, hospitals, and water and energy infrastructure, according to those close to discussions.
A parallel, long-term rebuild will be the “re-imagining” of northern Gaza and Gaza City, where the bulk of the population once lived, over a 10-to-15-year period, according to a Gulf diplomat and confirmed by a European diplomat. According to current assessments, Western and Arab diplomats are unsure how much of northern Gaza can become inhabitable in the near future, citing environmental and health concerns from Israel’'s intensive bombing of the area.
In the wake of a united Arab refusal to put “boots on the ground” in Gaza right after an Israeli withdrawal, a compromise has been struck by Arab states, the Biden administration, and the PA to police a post-Hamas Gaza with a grouping of former PA security officers in Gaza. Those officers were forced into retirement following Hamas’ seizure of the strip in 2007.
Gaza governance?
The flow of billions of dollars into Gaza hinges on who, precisely, will govern the strip.
During U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s visit to Ramallah Saturday, the PA agreed with the European-American-Arab plan to form a technocratic unity government under a “revamped and revitalized” PA to govern both Gaza and the West Bank.
Under the verbally agreed-upon plan, octogenarian PA President Mahmoud Abbas would serve as a ceremonial figurehead for a transitional period, with the unity government providing services, running day-to-day affairs, and overseeing reconstruction.
Yet talks are snagging over the details. Mr. Abbas’ inner circle wants the unity government stacked with loyalists and people from the West Bank. The U.S. and Arab powers, diplomats say, are doubling down, insisting the new government be staffed equally with Palestinians from Gaza and from the West Bank, all apolitical technocrats and civil society members.
“Capable Palestinian technocrats ... don’t receive the attention they deserve,” Mohammed Baharoon, director of the Dubai-based B’huth think tank, says of a technocratic government’s merits.
European, British, and Gulf diplomats’ preference, according to multiple sources, is for the revamped PA to include Palestinian diaspora lawyers, scientists, human rights activists, and business leaders from the West. They would be imbued with a belief in good governance, and free of the bitter divisions and petty rivalries that mark Palestinian politics today.
Meanwhile, the PA is pushing for an international peace conference setting a timeline for a Palestinian state as a condition for promoting the post-Hamas governance plan – a political horizon that would help it sell the initiative to other factions and the public.
“What is missing [in the plan] is a political solution,” says Bassam Salhi, a member of the Palestine Liberation Organization Executive Committee and Abbas ally……..……READ MORE AT THE CHRISTIAN SCIENCE MONITOR.