MEM: After Israel-Hezbollah deal, is a Gaza ceasefire next?
Middle East Matters
December 2, 2024
Friends,
With Thanksgiving over, there is one thing still to be grateful for—one less arena of war in the Middle East.
As fighting simmers in Syria’s north and shakes the brittle Bashar Al Assad regime, a tense calm has returned to Lebanon. As of early Monday, the fragile Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire was holding.
Israel may not have achieved all of its objectives, Hezbollah may not be happy with the final terms, but last Wednesday’s ceasefire deal was both a breakthrough allowing Lebanese families to return home and rebuild broken lives and a rare win from months of moribund Middle East diplomacy.
This extra edition of Middle East Matters looks specifically at the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal and what it means for Gaza and the wider region.
There will be endless debate and analysis in the weeks to come on whether this ceasefire is interim or permanent, how much this really weakens Hezbollah’s grip over Lebanon and Iran’s deterrence against Israel.
Multiple reported violations by Israel have already been alleged with Israeli strikes killing two people on Monday.
But for now, it is one less war. A slowing of rocketfire. A chance to catch breath and take stock. The threat of miscalculation and regional spillover has lessened.
Hopes are now high in Gaza and among Israeli hostage families that mediators can ride the momentum of the Lebanon talks’ success to finally secure a deal between Israel and Hamas to cease the fighting and bring the hostages home.
So let’s break down the regional implications of the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal—and whether it can bring any good news for Gaza.
Your friend and colleague,
-Taylor
Hezbollah Deal: An Israel-Iran détente?
The ceasefire in Lebanon is an important step towards deescalating Israel-Iran tensions. Basically, it is a chance for both countries to step back from the brink, reassess strategies and claim some victories.
Hezbollah is still armed and retains its deep-rooted organizational structure, thereby keeping Iran’s influence in Lebanon and its line of deterrence intact, even if Hezbollah’s leadership and rocket capabilities are not what they were a few weeks ago.
Israel has decimated Hezbollah’s leadership and, should the ceasefire be fully implemented, pushed the movement back from the border. Hezbollah’s existence allows Iran continued influence over Lebanon, while Israel has pushed Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River: this new status-quo allows Iran to save face and for Israel to say to its public that it has degraded Hezbollah to allow residents to return to the north.
Whether this peace holds is yet to be seen.
The possibility of miscalculations and wider Israel-Iran war seems to have dropped significantly—at least for the two months heading into Trump Administration 2.0. Immediate worries in Tehran are of the Assad regime’s stability amid rebel gains Syria, with the Iranian Foreign Minister meeting with Assad in Damascus on Sunday. Iran simply may not have the bandwidth for a confrontation with Israel—for now.
This does not mean complete quiet from Iran’s axis of resistance. Houthis, who are not bound by the deal, may decide to continue to attack Red Sea shipping and launch drones and rockets into Israel—as they did on Sunday. Iran’s proxies in Iraq, too, remain at the ready, awaiting a call from Tehran to go into action.
But What About Gaza?
In the wake of the Israel-Lebanon agreement, people in Gaza are in an almost celebratory mood. If Israel and Hezbollah can reach a deal, then surely Hamas and Israel can do the same, and soon, or so the logic goes.
Israeli hostage families are also seizing on the success, urging Israeli leaders to use the same bargaining and willingness for concessions to finally reach a ceasefire deal with Hamas and bring hostages home.
Egypt, US and Qatar are mounting this week a fresh push to reach a Gaza ceasefire deal.
But Lebanon is not Gaza. And Hezbollah is not Hamas.
Gaza is yards away from Israeli homes and communities. Hamas committed the worst atrocities on Israelis in its modern history. Families and companies still feel unsafe to return.
Hamas, cornered and under siege, has its eyes on Palestinian leadership and its regional position. With 44,000 people killed by Israel’s military offensive, it has instigated a heavy cost in “martyrs”. Hamas must show in the medium-term that these thousands of men, women and children were not killed in vein and that it has that it achieved some gains for the national cause. It is also under pressure from the hundreds of thousands of displaced and suffering Gazans to reach a deal that allows families to return to their homes in northern Gaza—which is being systematically cleared by Israel.
Although those close to the talks say Israel and Hamas are only “inches” apart, they are so-far insurmountable inches—the disarmament of Hamas, exodus of Hamas leaders from Gaza, permanent Israeli military occupation of the Philadelphi corridor versus Hamas retaining arms and sway in Gaza, the Israeli military withdrawing from strategic corridors currently cutting the Strip into three, and allowing families to return to the north.
These details create drastically different futures for Gaza.
Meanwhile, Israeli ministers caution that Israel will be in Gaza for years to come as the Israeli army continues to build infrastructure in Gaza to facilitate a longer-term military reoccupation.
What’s Likely to Happen?
Paradoxically, the Israel-Hezbollah deal may make an Israel-Hamas ceasefire less likely in the near-term.
Under pressure to reestablish a sense of security in Israel, with a stated goal of Hamas’ destruction, and far-right coalition partners demanding the government finish the job, the Netanyahu government may double-down on the theatre in Gaza—compensate for the end of operations in the north by intensifying in the south.
From my talks with Israeli analysts and those close to mediators, many now believe the potential pressure by the incoming Trump Administration, not the Israel-Lebanon deal, may make a Gaza ceasefire happen.
President Trump has reportedly sent messages, directly and via intermediaries, that he wants the Gaza war officially over before he takes office on January 20.
Should President Trump see the end to the war in Gaza serving the interests of his political goals, his administration may press the Israeli government to wind down military operations while threatening countries hosting the dispersed Hamas leadership to get the movement to agree to a deal.
It could be the incoming president’s desire to appear as a peacemaker, rather than the outgoing president’s successful peace-making in Lebanon, that makes a Gaze ceasefire deal happen.
What does this mean for Gazans and Israeli hostage families? This may mean two more months of war.
I hope, as Gazans and hostage families, that I am proven wrong.