Arab states see a path to progress through Syria. It could be bumpy.

May 16, 2023

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, for years persona non grata, is set to travel to Riyadh Friday to attend an Arab League summit.

It’s a stunning turnaround and recognition that the regional bloc’s pledge of “maximum pressure” against his regime has failed, more than a decade after the Arab League suspended Syria’s membership and Gulf Arab states mounted a campaign to oust him from power over Syria’s systematic killing of peaceful protesters.

Despite the legacy of the 12-year Syrian civil war – 300,000 civilians killed, 5 million refugees, three foreign armies’ involvement in Syria, and the birth of the Islamic State – Arab states are now reconciling with the Assad regime out of simple realpolitik.

The Gulf states are eager to extend a spring of cooperation and diplomacy blooming across the region to Syria, a country geographically located at the heart of the Arab world that some leaders have described as an “estranged brother.”

By offering normalization, legitimacy, and badly needed funds to Damascus, they hope to create a willing partner to tackle the issues of militias, illicit drugs, and refugees, all of which are spilling over Syria’s borders.

Yet observers warn that Iran’s influence in Syria and Syria’s sense of impunity over the failure of Arab pressure may encourage Damascus to drive a difficult bargain. And U.S. sanctions and international court cases may limit Arab states’ options.

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